Starting November 2, Google says it is extending its overdelivery reconciliation to Programmatic Guaranteed deals bought through Display & Video 360, its ad buying platform. If an ended deal delivered more impressions than the publisher and buyer agreed to, Google can identify the excess and exclude it from payment. A forecast that multiplies every delivered impression by the booked rate can therefore overstate revenue.
Google Ad Manager’s release notes describe a change in which deals are covered. Reconciliation already existed for Programmatic Guaranteed, where a publisher reserves inventory for an agreed price and volume. If your sales team uses delivery reports to estimate revenue before finance sees the final payment, check how your forecasts treat these DV360 deals.
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What the month-end check can catch
Google’s Programmatic Direct payment and reporting guide explains that the system checks completed deals before finalizing revenue. Excess delivery that happens well before a deal ends or after the system runs can escape the check. Use the booked goal as a forecast baseline, then verify the amount actually excluded after close.
Keep the deal’s end date beside its month-to-date delivery. A November report may show excess delivery on a deal that finishes in December. You can calculate the excess in November, but the report alone cannot tell you whether Google has marked it for exclusion. If you are preparing November figures, separate potential overdelivery from adjustments that have actually appeared.
How a campaign can deliver 8% extra without earning 8% extra
Take a hypothetical deal for 500,000 impressions at a gross rate of $12 per thousand. It delivers 540,000. At the booked rate, the agreed impressions represent $6,000. Applying the same rate to the full delivery count gives $6,480. If Google excludes all 40,000 extra impressions, the difference is a $480 overstatement in the gross forecast. This example assumes one rate and full identification of the excess.
The extra impressions also occupy inventory. If you could have sold all 40,000 elsewhere at $3 net per thousand, that alternative would earn $120. At 50% fill it would earn $60. Keep the numbers separate. The $480 corrects a forecast based on the original deal. The $60 estimates what the inventory might have earned in another sale. If there was no competing demand, that second figure could be zero. Use the revenue per thousand calculator to check either calculation on your own numbers.
What to hand to finance at the next close
Pull your completed DV360 Programmatic Guaranteed deals and match them to the booked goals. Keep the order or line-item identifier, end date, agreed volume, delivered impressions, and reported overdelivery in one sheet. Google’s definition of Total overdelivered impressions explains which excess the system marked. If you also calculate delivered minus booked impressions in your sheet, give that column its own label so nobody mistakes it for the platform adjustment.
Then compare the forecast with finalized Programmatic Guaranteed earnings. Keep the booked gross rate separate from net payment. If your numbers differ, check the reporting period, fees and reported excess before attributing the gap to overdelivery. Your finance handoff should explain what was sold, what ran, what the system excluded, and which figures are still pending.
If similar deals repeatedly run beyond their goals, ask ad operations to look at pacing near the end date. Check the delivery rules before changing settings on live commitments. If the next question is how to value inventory that could go to other demand, the price-floor test guide shows why the winning price alone cannot tell you what that inventory earns.
