Paywall break-even calculator for publishers
Enter comparable monthly ad earnings before and after the paywall change and the net monthly contribution of one extra paying subscriber. Use U.S. dollars. The result is the minimum whole number of additional active subscribers needed to replace the ad loss.
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Worked example
- Monthly ad revenue before the change: 12,000 USD
- Monthly ad revenue after the change: 11,100 USD
- Net monthly contribution per subscriber: 6.5 USD
Additional active subscribers needed · 139
See the formula
Subtract monthly ad revenue after the change from monthly ad revenue before the change. If advertising lost money, divide that loss by the net monthly contribution per subscriber and round up.
How to interpret the result
The result counts additional active paid readers at the same monthly contribution. If ad revenue held steady or rose, it returns zero. Use revenue from the same section and comparable periods. Subtract payment and platform fees, refunds and per-reader costs from the subscription figure. If readers pay annually, divide the net amount by the months it covers. Budget any new fixed expenses separately.
Publisher example
A local news site estimates net monthly ad revenue will fall from $12,000 to $11,100. At $6.50 per extra active subscriber, 138 readers contribute $897 and leave $3 uncovered. The break-even count is 139. If the publisher tests the rule and net advertising holds at $12,000, the calculator returns zero. It measures the ad revenue trade-off for that period and does not include new fixed costs or forecast signups.
Related reading: How many subscribers do you need to replace ad revenue lost to a paywall?
Google News Initiative’s paywall testing exercise compares incremental subscriptions with the ad revenue affected by meter changes. Use a measured test or a plainly labeled estimate of the ad loss.